Crisis Simulation Exercise

Someland
Early Recovery Offer

A rapid, data-led early recovery proposal for a compounded seismic and access crisis — built around UNDP's 72-hour assessment tool, RAPIDA.

Prepared byHormuz Team
DateJune 2026
StatusCrisis level declared
Lead instrumentRAPIDA, 48h–3wk
Illustration of earthquake-affected settlement in mountainous terrain, with response personnel assessing debris
Illustrative rendering — Someland exercise scenario, Sim Sim corridor
Chapter 01

Context and Background

A dam at risk, militias on the roads, and a country that hadn't finished recovering from the last disaster.

Someland is facing a compounded crisis driven by seismic risk, infrastructure fragility, insecurity and restricted access. Morning tremors near Sim Sim have raised serious concerns over the stability of a dam considered unsafe, prompting evacuation orders and increasing the risk of downstream flooding, displacement, damage to agricultural land, disruption of basic services and contamination of water sources.

The crisis is unfolding in a country already exposed to recurrent floods, storms, droughts, landslides and earthquakes, with incomplete recovery from previous disasters and localized conflict. At the same time, armed militias have seized key transportation routes, hindering aid delivery, evacuation support, assessments and restoration of critical services.

The combined impact of dam failure risk, restricted humanitarian access and pre-existing vulnerabilities could rapidly deepen displacement, livelihood losses, public health risks and social tensions — and risks overwhelming local authorities and further weakening already-strained infrastructure.

250K
people displaced, including a 75,000-strong migrant population under temporary protection
5
provinces affected by debris, damage and disrupted services
$75B
estimated economic losses across the affected region
3/5
provincial government offices severely damaged
Dam instability — Sim Sim Militia-controlled transport routes Pre-existing ethnic tensions Provincial elections pending
Chapter 02 · Rationale & Coordination

Coordination Arrangements

Nationally led, UNDP-supported — no parallel structures.

The early recovery response will be nationally led by the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA), with UNDP providing technical, coordination and advisory support. The arrangement will build on existing government systems and avoid creating parallel structures.

Government Track

Coordination with the Government

NDMA is the main government entry point for early recovery. UNDP supports NDMA in bringing in relevant ministries depending on the nature and location of the crisis, and advocates for mayors and municipal heads to join sub-national coordination meetings.

NDMA Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Interior Provincial authorities Housing / Health / Labour Transport / Environment Telecoms / Electricity
UN & Humanitarian Track

UN System & Humanitarian Actors

UNDP ensures NDMA engages the UN Country Team, coordinates with OCHA and engages the Shelter and WASH Clusters, while also linking with Red Cross/Red Crescent components and major INGOs. WFP support for collective shelters will be flagged to the RC/HC.

UNHCT / OCHA IOM · UNICEF · FAO ILO · UN Women UN-Habitat · UNHCR Red Cross / IFRC Oxfam · Save the Children ActionAid
Chapter 03 · Development of RAPIDA

RAPIDA: the 72-hour early recovery assessment

Powered by AI, deployed by the Crisis Bureau — insight before the PDNA process even starts.

RAPIDA is UNDP's rapid early recovery assessment tool, deployed by the Crisis Bureau's Assessments and Digital Solutions team. It builds on GIS tools (Geohub) and leverages satellite imagery, social media and night-light data to deliver real-time insight within 72 hours of a crisis — later deepened by key informant interviews (KIIs) over one to three weeks, covering infrastructure, livelihoods, energy, environment, governance and gender impact.

At the Herat earthquake in Afghanistan, RAPIDA helped UNDP narrow down affected locations for in-person assessment, saving time and surfacing data on hard-to-access areas — including estimates of damaged housing and debris tonnage. RAPIDA runs at no cost to the Country Office, covered under C3RT, and activates automatically whenever a crisis level is declared.

A competitive edge, not just a dataset

UNDP was left out of the initial World Bank/EU/NCCC call on the PDNA, informed only afterward. RAPIDA can be activated immediately, giving UNDP credible data and visibility within 72 hours — well before the PDNA process matures over its typical 1–3 month framework. That gives UNDP a concrete basis to engage in HCT, NCCC and donor discussions, rather than waiting to be invited in.

RAPIDA
48h–3wk
Rapid Assessments
(HBDA / SEIA)
1–2 mo
In-Depth Assessments
(PDNA / HBDA / SEIA)
2–4 mo
Recovery & Reconstruction Stabilization
6+ mo
RAPIDA assessment cycle diagram, showing the path from crisis hit through RAPIDA (48h-3wk), rapid assessments, in-depth assessments, to recovery and reconstruction stabilization, returning to the pathway toward sustainable development
FIG. 1 — RAPIDA positions UNDP earliest in the assessment cycle, ahead of rapid and in-depth assessment tracks. Proven in Colombia, Libya and Afghanistan.
Chapter 04 · Key Elements

Where RAPIDA looks first

Eight focus areas, each grounded in a number from the ground.

Debris estimation

An estimated 100–120M m³ of construction debris across five provinces. Remote sensing can quantify volume and location around Suri, Pari City and Helo Village without field access.

Community infrastructure

7,100 km of community roads, 520 bridges, and 35% of community buildings damaged — mapping which social and governance structures have been disrupted village by village.

Economic impact

78,000 farmers with unsalvageable seasonal crops, 60% of small businesses losing tools and equipment — capturing disruption before the slower PDNA delivers findings.

Gender impact

Women represent 70% of informal market vendors and 60% of tourism employment. KIIs with women's machineries and cooperatives surface impacts official reporting has missed, while monitoring rising SGBV risk.

Energy & environment

Hydropower capacity sharply reduced, shifting reliance to diesel and unsustainable timber harvesting — tracking degradation to support a lower-emission recovery pathway.

Displacement (IDPs)

250,000 displaced, including a 75,000-strong migrant population under temporary protection — tracking patterns and strain already generating friction with host communities.

Local governance functions

Government offices in 3 of 5 provinces severely damaged; 30% of staff and 38% of police not reporting to work. A natural UNDP entry point for restoration support.

Community security

Riots in Centre City, attacks on aid workers and accusations of exploited unrest among minority communities — informing conflict-sensitive, do-no-harm programming amid election-adjacent tension.

Chapter 05 · Standards

Deployed with the highest safeguards

In a context of ethnic tension and active misinformation, data itself becomes a protection issue.

Privacy by design

Safeguarding personal data

Given ongoing civil unrest, ethnic tensions targeting the Jung, Bing, Hing and Sing communities, and a vulnerable migrant population under temporary protection, RAPIDA embeds privacy by design across all data collection — particularly KIIs involving ethnic minorities, women's groups and displaced populations. Informed consent is obtained from all respondents and data is fully anonymized before publication.

Do no harm

Upholding ethical standards

Data practices follow the UN Charter and international human rights frameworks, with particular attention to "do no harm" given the risk of inflaming ethnic tensions or fuelling opposition narratives ahead of provincial elections. All collection and analysis is designed to serve the public good and avoid reinforcing existing stigmatization.

Chapter 06 · Implementation

How RAPIDA is implemented

From open-access data to validated, ground-level insight in three steps.

1

Identify affected areas

GIS and open-access data from UNOSAT, EU Copernicus, the Pacific Disaster Center, OpenStreetMap and UN-SPIDER pinpoint affected regions and districts immediately after the event.

Within 72 hours
2

Estimate impact on people & infrastructure

Population data (WorldPop/Meta) and building footprints (Microsoft/Google) are overlaid with OSM road and land-cover data to estimate affected people, buildings, roads and critical infrastructure, hosted on a shareable Geo-Hub.

Within 72 hours
3

Key informant interviews

Detailed information is gathered through KIIs with community, religious and traditional leaders, local officials, women's groups, ethnic representatives, and chambers of commerce — led by the CO with CB support.

1–3 weeks

The two components let UNDP move from a broad remote overview to a grounded, locally validated picture of early recovery needs within the first weeks of a crisis — laying the groundwork to activate Crisis Response Packages (CRP).

Additional digital tools in use

ToolDescriptionAccessibilityManaging team
Kobo ToolboxPrimary data collection, surveys — mobile & desktopAll UNDP, freeBPPS / SDGi
Survey123Primary data collection, surveys — mobile & desktopESRI creator/pro licenseBMS / ITM GIS
Microsoft PowerAppsIn-house primary data collection toolAll UNDPITM / SDH / CO
DFX — GIS Geo-Hub PortalData storage, visualization, open-source GIS analysisFree, approved accountBPPS / SDGi
Power BIData visualization and analysisAll UNDP, freeBMS / ITM GIS
ArcGIS ProductsGIS, data storage and visualization suiteESRI creator/pro licenseBMS / ITM GIS
MS Office 365Data cleaning, analysis, transformation, publicationMostly free, some licensedBMS / ITM GIS
Implementation risk

UNDSS restricts field access in high-risk mountain provinces (Sim Sim, Suri). Remote sensing should cover these areas first, while KIIs sequence in from safer zones like Helo, using trusted local enumerators such as Red Cross volunteers rather than UNDP staff. Findings should be framed as indicative and shared through UNCT/HCT channels first, avoiding politicization ahead of provincial elections.

Chapter 07 · Framework & Budget

Programmatic Framework

Five sectors, three phases, a combined $260 million envelope.

$10M
Restoring Local Governance
$150M
Health
$50M
Energy
$25M
Livelihoods
$25M
Debris Management
$260M
Total programmatic envelope, 0–48 months
0–6 months
6–18 months
18–48 months
Restoring Local Governance

Confirm impacted areas, engage stakeholders, identify needs via RAPIDA/MIRA, restore police functions and women's protection mechanisms in shelters, assess Dam structural integrity, restore cell coverage and energy.

Health

Map stakeholders, confirm immediate needs, identify public health threats (AWDs, cholera, PTSD), procure medicines and trauma kits, run risk-communication campaigns, recruit Community Health Workers, explore drone-delivery partnership.

Energy

Assess affected sites and gendered energy impacts, design solutions by hot-spot and risk matrix, prioritize cooking, lighting, health and education facility needs.

Livelihoods

Field visits where access allows, value-chain assessment for cultural industries and agriculture, partner mapping, cash-for-work programmes for debris removal and facility cleaning.

Debris Management

Assess debris size, type and landfill capacity, identify transport routes, scope contracts, develop a PIP, identify health/security/legal risks.

Restoring Local Governance

Restore schools, health facilities, police stations and courts; design local rule-of-law and community policing programmes; support local CSOs and Local Peace Committees for social cohesion.

Health

Deploy mobile PHC clinics and DOCKTOUR containerized mobile hospitals at no cost; train health workers with WHO; design Smart Health Facility recovery blueprint; operationalize ambulances and supply chains.

Energy

Integrate energy into other sectors (mobile clinics, solar stations), establish mini-grids, build an implementation model and identify technical/financial resourcing and ownership.

Livelihoods

Deliver small-scale farming, livestock, women-led market vending, handicrafts, tourism-linked work and informal construction support across affected sectors.

Debris Management

Implementation with contractor engagement and partner management; deliver a communications strategy on areas addressed and complaint processes.

Restoring Local Governance

Comprehensive capacity building for local authorities; support police and judiciary recruitment/retention; establish Early Warning Mechanisms using GIS, mapping and AI.

Health

Develop a comprehensive, gender- and disability-inclusive health recovery plan; engage major donors (WB, IFIs, EU); design durable health waste management; support digital health services and BiMediX telemedicine integration.

Energy

Identify procurement, delivery and access risks; address exclusion of women from the energy sector; support sustainable energy policy and framework development.

Livelihoods

Support digital skilling for informal-sector workers, private-sector recovery engagement, and a Decent Jobs project with gender-conscious skilling and social protection access.

Debris Management

Strengthen national institutions (civil defence, municipalities) for long-term policy and resilience; conduct capacity-needs assessment for local institutions and communities.

Chapter 08 · Cross-Cutting Pillars

Gender, Inclusion & Conflict Sensitivity

Three pillars run through every component of the offer — not bolted on at the end.

Gender Mainstreaming

Sex-, age- and disability-disaggregated data informs targeting given existing gaps in land ownership and economic participation. Particular attention to female-headed households, women with disabilities and women from minority communities. Women are actively engaged in planning and decision-making, with protection-sensitive design across all activities.

Inclusion

Recovery assistance is accessible, equitable and responsive to persons with disabilities, older persons, youth, female-headed households and minority communities. Disaggregated data identifies specific vulnerabilities; affected communities are engaged directly in planning so no one is left behind.

Conflict Sensitivity & Do No Harm

Given tensions between the Somese majority and mountain minority communities, recovery is guided by transparent targeting, inclusive consultation and regular conflict analysis — with feedback mechanisms to address perceptions of exclusion and strengthen social cohesion.

Chapter 09 · Communications & Advocacy

Communications and Advocacy

Positioning UNDP as credible and visible, while keeping messaging conflict-sensitive.

The plan supports the Local Governance and Health programmatic interventions across the 0–6, 6–18, and 18–48 month phases, building public trust, supporting resource mobilization, and ensuring transparent two-way communication with affected communities — including women, mountain minority groups and displaced populations.

Key audiences

Affected communities

Mountain minority groups — Jung, Bing, Hing, Sing — and displaced populations

Government

Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Health, NDMA, provincial & municipal authorities

UN & donors

UNCT, HCT, European Union, World Bank, International Financial Institutions

Media

National and international press

UNDP

Staff and senior management

Civil society

Women's organizations and youth-led organizations

Plan duration

Illustration of earthquake-affected settlement in mountainous terrain, with response personnel assessing debris
0–6 months

Immediate response and stabilization

6–18 months

Recovery and institutional restoration

18–48 months

Sustained recovery and resilience-building

Illustration of earthquake-affected settlement in mountainous terrain, with response personnel assessing debris
Chapter 10 · Capacities Required

The team required to deliver the offer

Fifteen specialist roles spanning coordination, sectoral recovery, and cross-cutting protection.

Coordination Team Leader

Leads UNDP's response, engages NDMA, UNCT, HCT and donors; bridges humanitarian response and longer-term recovery.

Data Specialist

Analyzes assessment findings, supports GIS mapping, informs resource mobilization and programme design.

Infrastructure Recovery Specialist

Assesses damage and supports rehabilitation of schools, health facilities, roads, bridges, water and power systems.

Livelihoods Recovery Specialist

Designs employment and cash-for-work initiatives; supports women-led enterprises and tourism-linked livelihoods.

Governance Specialist

Strengthens provincial/local authority coordination and embeds recovery within existing institutions.

Social Cohesion Specialist

Ensures conflict-sensitive, inclusive assistance and supports local peace committees and dialogue.

Gender & WPS Specialist

Addresses needs of women and girls and promotes participation in recovery decision-making, alongside MHPSS.

DRR & Resilience Specialist

Integrates risk-informed approaches and Build Back Better principles across all interventions.

MHPSS Specialist

Integrates psychosocial recovery considerations into community-based interventions.

Agriculture Recovery Specialist

Assesses damage to agricultural assets, irrigation and livestock; restores production and food security.

Energy in Crisis Response Specialist

Assesses power infrastructure damage and supports restoration of resilient energy services.

Rule of Law & Community Security Specialist

Restores local justice and safety functions; strengthens authority-community collaboration.

Health Systems Recovery Specialist

Supports assessment and recovery of damaged health infrastructure and essential services.

Operations Coordinator

Coordinates field operations and business continuity across multiple simultaneous recovery activities.

Procurement, Finance & Logistics Specialists

Support timely procurement, financial oversight and movement of personnel and supplies to affected areas.

Security Advisor

Monitors developments and supports safe access amid militia-controlled transportation routes.

Programme Management Support

Coordinates planning, monitoring and reporting across recovery workstreams.

Communications & Partnerships Specialist

Leads strategic communications, stakeholder engagement and resource mobilization.

Monitoring & Evaluation Specialist

Tracks progress, measures outcomes and supports evidence-based decision-making.

Chapter 11 · Required Special Measures

Special Measures for Crisis Response

An initial six months of flexibility to bypass standard administrative delays.

The UNDP Someland Country Office requests immediate activation of the pre-approved Special Measures for Crisis Response, for an initial period of six months with possible extension — an operational necessity to empower the Country Office to rapidly deploy critical recovery resources.

Operational measures

CategoryMeasureRationale
HRUse of pre-classified generic JDs/ToRs for crisis responseAn understaffed 20-person CO needs to onboard surge capacity in engineering, debris management and cash-for-work without classification delay.
HRDevolved national recruitment (FTA/PSA) to local CO HR teamAccelerates hiring of national staff with essential local knowledge and language skills.
HRRR direct recruitment for up to 20 TA positions (up to P5)Enables immediate deployment of senior technical experts in governance and recovery planning.
ProcurementDirect procurement increased to US$15,000Allows immediate purchase of essential supplies from local vendors.
ProcurementSimplified RFQ for goods/services up to US$200,000Faster than standard RFQ amid collapsed supply chains and urgent shelter/sanitation needs.
ProcurementLTAs expiring within 6 months extended by 12 months
FinancePetty cash increased to US$10,000 (US$1,000/transaction)Enables on-the-spot payment for cash-for-work labour and urgent supplies in remote locations.
FinanceProject Cash Advance raised to US$50,000, 60-day reporting

Programmatic measures

CategoryMeasureRationale
NGO/CSOAd hoc NGO selection approval process for LVGFunds local partners quickly to scale emergency livelihoods and community mobilization.
NGO/CSOHACT micro-assessment requirement waivedUsing PCAT screening instead allows rapid disbursement of funds.
NGO/CSORoster eligibility if contracted by a sister agency within 24–36 months
Private SectorDue diligence authority delegated to RR up to US$1 millionFinalizes large-scale debris removal and reconstruction partnerships without delay.
Private Sector"Basic" due diligence pathway for agreements ≤US$150,000Lets UNDP engage smaller, local enterprises efficiently.
Project InitiationSES and quality-assurance procedures exempted for 12 monthsEnables rapid PIP launch for critical activities.
Project InitiationNo threshold on LVG grants per programme cycle (US$150K/grant cap remains)
Project InitiationGovernment agreement recommended, not mandatory, under DIM modality
Chapter 12 · Risk Matrix

Risk Matrix

Eight risks, continuously monitored across operational, security, financial, environmental and social dimensions.

The recovery response will be implemented in a complex and evolving environment shaped by earthquake damage, continued aftershocks, access constraints and institutional capacity challenges. Particular attention is given to conflict sensitivity, inclusion, accountability and coordination to ensure interventions contribute to resilience and sustainable outcomes.

RiskLikelihoodImpactMitigation measure
Tensions between Somese majority and mountain minority communities rise over perceived inequities in recovery assistanceHighHighApply conflict-sensitive programming and transparent selection criteria
Insecurity and restricted access from armed groups controlling transport routesVery HighHighWork with government authorities to find alternatives and avoid delay
Continued aftershocks and secondary hazardsHighHighConduct risk reduction measures
Misinformation and rumors undermine trust in recovery effortsMediumHighConduct campaigns and establish feedback mechanisms
Funding gaps delay implementation of recovery interventionsMediumHighEngage donors at early stages
Limited institutional capacity of local authorities delays planning and implementationMediumHighProvide technical assistance to local authorities and government
Women, persons with disabilities, minority groups and other vulnerable populations excluded from recovery benefitsMediumHighMainstream gender and inclusion across all interventions
Damage to critical infrastructure exceeds available recovery resourcesHighHighPrioritize critical infrastructure, mobilize funding, coordinate with partners, phase reconstruction by urgency